It’s that time again, when everyone who thinks they’re a pundit (that would be everyone with a blog or Twitter account) has to make predictions for the coming year. But predictions are perilous: Get it right and you look like a mere trend-watcher; get it wrong and you look like a fool. It’s such a hassle! So I’m doing something different this year: I’m going to make predictions for 2009 now that it’s over, and reflect on just how smart I am (not) to have made them. Or something.

What I Would Have Gotten Right

I definitely could have predicted a lot of what happened in 2009. I mean, these were slam dunks!

1. Twitter rocks the world – I wasn’t early to Twitter, but I spent the early part of 2009 evangelizing its benefits to companies and co-workers alike. Considering how common Twitter is today, it’s hard to believe how roundly criticized and misunderstood it was this time last year. Yet here we are, on the verge of 2010, and Twitter has seeped onto our business cards, presentation templates, and web sites. I might not have predicted how stable (!) Twitter got by the end of the year, though.
2. Apple’s Macs and iPhones rule – I switched to the iPhone and the Mac in 2007 and 2008, respectively, but it looks like I wasn’t much of an iconoclast after all: By November, half of the Tech Field Day delegates were using MacBooks, and the Windows and Blackberry holdouts have started vocally defending their operating system choice. Pretty much like Mac folks used to do way back in 2008.
3. The recession is a serious pain – Companies put the brakes on spending and hiring, many even shifting both into reverse in 2009. This came as no surprise to humans capable of thought. The impact on enterprise IT companies was similarly predictable: Although most were able to survive, the impact of 2009 will continue to be felt for years. I might have predicted it would be worse, though I’m glad to say I would have been wrong.
4. EMC, NetApp, HDS, HP, and IBM continue to quibble – Surprise: Big company bloggers spend way too much time criticizing the products and actions of each other and way to little time talking about the true value of their own products.

Non-IT slam-dunk predictions: Obama was reviled by the right; the war in Afghanistan continues; people do stupid stuff in the name of reality shows.

What I Probably Could Have Predicted

Although some details would likely have been missed, I think I would have seen these coming.

1. Cloud compute and storage hits the enterprise – I was a believer in the cloud this time last year, and I bet my future on it by taking a position at enterprise cloud storage provider, Nirvanix, in March. I would have predicted that enterprise buyers would be putting serious thought to buying cloud products, but the scope has surprised me. We’re talking enough petabytes that the non-cloud players felt compelled to strike back with the private cloud pitch. Awesome!
2. Sun and Data Domain were acquired – My money would have been on Dell, IBM, or HP as buyers for this pair, but EMC wouldn’t have been outside my guesses. Still, Oracle buying Sun and vocally committing to keep it going, SPARC and all, would never have come to mind. But I wouldn’t have guessed against it either, so I’ll give myself a point here!
3. Cisco and EMC buddy up – I’ve long thought an outright merger of these two was in the cards, but even the recession couldn’t make the financials work. A partnership would have been on the list, and Acadia came as no surprise to anyone.
4. Cloud outages and data loss – I definitely could have predicted that high-profile cloud services would fall over throughout the year, and that some would lose data. Not all are enterprise-grade, after all. But the outages at Google, Rackspace, and Amazon, and Microsoft’s Danger data loss, surprised me. Don’t those guys have their acts together?
5. IT conferences falter – I spoke at Interop in 2009, but it lacked the 20,000-strong crowd it once had. Storage Decisions and Storage Networking World managed to fill their halls, but the old-school IT conference has lost its luster. Although VMworld remains strong, attendance was definitely off.
6. FCoE and SSD are still starting – I’ve been lukewarm on Fibre Channel over Ethernet and Solid State Drives, but I’m a bit surprised that storage vendors didn’t push them harder in 2009. I might have guessed there would have been more customer uptake to match the buzz.
7. SMB storage is hot – There’s a hole in the storage market between $1,000 and $20,000, and companies like Drobo and Iomega are rushing in to fill it. Now that ESX has solid iSCSI support, I expect a world of innovation here. (Oops, that sounds kind of like a 2010 prediction!)

Also in the predictable category: Goldman Sachs and Bank of America thrived while others fell; Ford is the strongest of the remaining US automakers; Boeing finally got the 787 off the ground.

What I Never Would Have Guessed

I’m not perfect, even in retrospect. Some of the Tech news from 2009 was just completely off the wall.

1. Microsoft Bing: This time for sure! – Seriously, Microsoft should stick to in-house thinking instead of trying to copy its rivals. Yet somehow, miraculously, Bing appeared and did not suck. In fact, I’m hearing regular (non-techie) folks around town talking about using the search engine. I’ve even used it! Could they actually have a winner?
2. Windows 7 rocks – Really? Seriously? Could Microsoft have come up with a solid replacement for Windows XP?
3. Ship it! – It’s not even 2010, and enterprise storage buyers can go out and purchase NetApp’s OnTap 8, EMC’s FAST, EMC Atmos Compute, and unicorn tears. Well, maybe not unicorn tears.
4. Still no GDrive – Seemingly every company has a cloud storage platform, from Amazon to Rackspace, Nirvanix to EMC, so why not Google? Could GDrive join Duke Nukem Forever as the most famous vaporware of the decade?
5. The executive shuffle – Dave Donatelli was supposed to lead EMC, not HP. Alan Atkinson was supposed to launch another startup, not take over Xiotech. At least NetApp was gentle.
6. Mac OS X (still) lacks iSCSI and ZFS – Come on, Cupertino, what’s wrong with you guys? I’ve been hyping ZFS for years, and iSCSI is commonplace. Yet Snow Leopard is stingy with both. Makes me want to hiss like one of those blue folks in Avatar.
7. Gestalt IT is a success – On a personal note, Gestalt IT didn’t even exist this time last year, and now we have a successful IT infrastructure blog and social media event. Amazing!

Other total shockers: Everyone loves Michael Jackson again; digital Beatles tunes are available everywhere but iTunes; Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize arrives 10 years early.

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | My 2009 IT Industry Predictions
This post was categorized as Apple, Computer history, Enterprise storage, Everything, Personal, Terabyte home, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

Next week I will be returning to Storage Decisions after missing the last few in 2009. Although I’ve presented at dozens of TechTarget’s storage shows, this will be the first time I will be representing a vendor (Nirvanix) with a show floor booth.

Although my dislike for certain aspects of trade shows (especially booth babes and chotchkies) are well documented, I’ll be trying some new ideas:

• I’ve been working on a concise overview of cloud storage for my in-stage presentation (Tuesday at 11:30 in the main ballroom)
• Being a cloud vendor, we will have a very plain booth – what better way to represent reduction in data center footprint than demoing our offering from an empty table?
• Rather than giving away some cheap flashy-light junk, we will be offering attendees a free tree. Seriously! Everyone who visits our booth will get a tree planted in their name, doing a bit to offset the massive environmental impact of the show and demonstrating the positive environmental impact of cloud computing.
• We will have three technical experts, one CEO, and two salespeople on the show floor, matching my suggested 50-50 ratio of tech and sales.
• We will be offering a free cloud computing strategy workshop to interested and qualified attendees following the show to facilitate deeper discussion.
• We are also hosting a CIO-level roundtable discussion in New York with some of the City’s top companies in October.

This is a major test, in my opinion, of substance over flash. Although cheap gimmicks might attract short-term attention, I believe that they do nothing to deliver real results. Instead, we’ll be applying our best people and ideas and demonstrating both our values and our value. Wish me luck, and I’ll see you in New York!

As many folks know, I wear two hats: I work full-time as Director of Consulting for Nirvanix, where I help customers realize the strategic value of cloud storage. In my off-hours I also write, speak, and generally gad about the industry as a sort of non-analyst. If you or your company will be at Storage Decisions New York 2009, drop me a line and let’s meet up!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | What’s All This About Cloud Storage? Ask Me At Storage Decisions
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

I’m really looking forward to joining the CloudCamp “unconference” movement, and will be heading to Columbus, Ohio, at the end of this month for my first Camp!

What’s an “unconference” like CloudCamp? As I discussed on the InfoSmack podcast, it’s a real revolution in the way tech conferences are held. Rather than herding attendees around like cattle and selling them to sponsors (who buy pricey booths and speaking slots), unconferences are user-driven. Think about the difference between a wiki or forum and a corporate web site and you’re getting the idea. When you attend a ‘Camp like this, you are invited to actively participate and even present!

End-user interaction was always the best source of information for me when I went to conferences and expos like Storage Decisions, and CloudCamp is the purest format for this. Many camps are presented in association with other conferences, planned either ahead or behind the main show to share attendees. In my eyes, unconferences are an ideal parallel to the development of business development events like the BD Event recently held in Boston.

If you’re interested in real cloud computing without the hype, why not head to the nearest CloudCamp? And if you happen to be near Columbus, Ohio on June 30, join me at CloudCamp Columbus!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | Join Me At CloudCamp Columbus, June 30, 2009!
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

I don’t usually “do” NDAs. It’s just too hard to figure out what I’m allowed to say and what I should keep quiet. I prefer to get free and open information, but will settle for embargoed briefings if it means I can get some time to think before reporting. So my Microsoft connection is a major anomaly, and I’ve been sitting on my hands trying not to spill the beans…

One of the great things about being a Microsoft MVP is the access I get to Microsoft software and staff. As I mentioned in my post about the 10 cool storage features from the 2009 Microsoft MVP Summit, I was able to preview a lot of what Microsoft is doing with their Server software and storage features. And the best part is that the Microsoft product teams are keenly interested in our feedback and suggestions. I’m told, for example, that the awesome iSCSI Quick Connect feature in the new Windows iSCSI initiator software was developed based on my feedback!

As I note on my Windows Storage Server 2008 preview on Gestalt IT, Microsoft has always kept WSS close to the vest. It’s only available to OEMs, not retail customers, and has never even been shared with TechNet or MSDN subscribers in the past. So I was really pleased when Microsoft gave the File System Storage MVPs access to a beta version of WSS 2008 so we could get a feel for all of the new features. I’ve also had some great conversations this week with the Microsoft product managers responsible for it.

What’s exciting about Windows Storage Server 2008?

1. It includes all of the storage enhancements in Windows Server 2008, including SMB 2.0 for much much faster file servicing over higher-latency links, SMfS, FSRM, enhanced VDS, and failover clustering.
2. WSS is the only way to get access to Microsoft’s iSCSI target software. It’s been improved in many ways from the prior releases, but its support for what Microsoft calls dual-active clustering is probably its most notable feature: You can’t share the same active LUN between cluster members, but each can have its own active LUNs and the can all fail over in the event that one member goes down.
3. The included single-instance storage (SIS) file-based deduplication has been much improved, scaling to 128 volumes per server and millions of files. It’s still not as effective capacity-wise as block-level deduplication (which I’d love to see, hint hint), but the performance is solid enough to use it for primary storage with production applications.
4. Probably the coolest feature exclusive to Windows Storage Server 2008 is its new browser-based remote administration capability. Just point your browser to the Storage Server machine (for example, “http://wss/desktop”) and you’ll get a full ActiveX version of RDP. Don’t use Internet Exploder? Firefox and Linux users will get a Java-based RDP instead! I will cover this feature more in the future, but let’s just say that every operating system should offer this!

Want to try Windows Storage Server for yourself? Breaking from the past, Microsoft will soon (like next week!) allow TechNet subscribers to download the full install. OEMs have a sekrit back-door site to try it out, too.

One more thing… This will be the last release of Windows Storage Server. There won’t even be a special Storage Server version of Server 2008 Service Pack 2! Starting now, Storage Server is just an optional feature of Windows Server. Purchasing and production use will still be limited to storage OEMs, but Microsoft has finally reconciled Storage Server with the rest of the Windows Server world. I imagine that most OEMs will release Service Pack 2 updates for their Storage Server customers shortly, and that future versions of the product will come closer to the base Server versions than WSS 2008. Although I can’t share what I know, I will say that Microsoft is continuing active development on their iSCSI target, single-instance storage, and other Storage Server features. I imagine that Windows Server 2008 R2 will support storage systems in the very near future!

On a personal note, reading A Brief History of Windows Storage Server Releases from the Microsoft Storage Server blog reminded me of the original unveiling of Windows Storage Server at Storage Decisions Chicago in June, 2003. The company loaded us all on one of those lake cruise boats with some celebrity impersonators, chocolate “Oscar”-style statues, an open bar, and a band. Good times ensued!

For more details, check out my Gestalt IT piece, Windows Storage Server-Based Systems Step Into 2008

Microsoft is detailing the new version of Windows Storage Server 2008 in a webcast Thursday at 8 AM Pacific. You should also check out the Microsoft Storage Server blog.

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | I Can Finally Talk About Windows Storage Server 2008!
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

If you work in the enterprise storage, storage networking, virtualization, or security industry, listen up! Otherwise, this post is not for you!

I hope you, or a representative from your company, will join me and the folks from Nirvanix and my friends like W. Curtis Preston and Marc Staimer, Charles Curran and Dan Gordon from Valhalla, and just about everyone else in the industry for Greg Duplessie’s Business Development event in Boston.

This is strictly an industry insider event – no end users, exibitors, tchochkes, or contests, just serious networking and business development. The kind of stuff that has always been going on behind closed doors and in the lobbies at Storage Networking World and Storage Decisions, but without the distraction of the actual conference!

If you are going, and are interested in discussing public managed storage in the cloud (or happen to have Red Sox tickets for June 8, 9, or 10) drop me a line. Let’s meet up in Boston!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | All Business Development All The Time!
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

I'm pleased to have been invited to write and speak on storage topics for a decade

I’m pleased to announce that I will be presenting at all four of TechTarget’s excellent end user-focused 2009 Storage Decisions conferences in North America! I’m also very excited to be developning two entirely new sessions for the show:

1. Tools and Tricks to Manage Capacity – Knowing how much disk capacity you have allocated, how much is actually being used, and what remains are basics for disk storage management. But it can be difficult to measure and describe storage capacity and make smart and effective decisions. In this session, we’ll cover the tools and best practices that are key to managing disk capacity.
2. Radical Tiered Storage to Reduce Cost and Expand Service – “Do more with less” is the slogan of the year, but storage pros have been doing exactly this for years. From HSM to tiered storage, data is moving away from simple disks and landing on flash memory, tape, and cloud services. Adopting an expansive tiered storage policy will not only reduce costs but can also improve performance and introduce new capabilities.

The 2009 show dates have been released, with more information at the official Storage Decisions site. Admission is free for qualified attendees, so register now for the session near you!

• Chicago – June 1-2, 2009
• Toronto – June 16, 2009
• New York – September 22-23, 2009
• San Francisco – November 17, 2009

Long-time readers of this blog know that both topics are top of mind for me, and I’ll be updating this blog and Gestalt IT with content on both capacity management and tiered storage over the coming year as I progress through the development and presentation of this content.

I spent the last two years presenting on the topics of storage virtualization and email archiving, and previously presented a two-hour “storage 101″ session. Although I loved that content, I’m never satisfied with my own work, so I’ll be happy to develop these two new presentations from scratch!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2009. | Two New Storage Decisions Sessions for 2009: Capacity Management and Radical Tiered Storage!
This post was categorized as Everything. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

Although the details have not been released, TechTarget updated its web site today with a list of events by region for 2009. My understanding is that, although the formats and locations are tweaked slightly, the user-focused character of their excellent Storage Decisions conferences and one-day seminars will remain.

Some highlights from the calendar:

• The Storage Decisions conferences in New York and Chicago remain, but the third half-day has been eliminated, leaving them at two days each.
• New this year are one-day Storage Decisions Summits in San Francisco and Toronto. These are multi-track, multi-speaker events, but are more focused, with only the best speakers and topics.
• Although the one-day seminar speakers and dates have not been finalized, newly-independent industry superstar, W. Curtis Preston, appears to be heading up the lions share, with dozens of dates focused on backup and data deduplication.

I’ll post more details when they become available. But until then, check the schedule and mark your calendars. These excellent events are well worth your time!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2008. | TechTarget Posts 2009 Event Schedule
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

Next week is the final Storage Decisions conference of 2008, Storage Decisions San Francisco! I’ll be in the Bay area from Sunday night through Wednesday, and invite you to say hello if you’re in the area as well!

If you’re attending the conference, here’s my schedule:

• Monday, 9:45 AM – 10:45 AM: DATA RETENTION & RETRIEVAL track: Deep Dive Into Email Archiving Products
• Monday, 4:30 PM – 7:00 PM: Exhibit Hall Reception
• Monday, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM: Ask the Experts in the Exhibit Hall
• Monday, 7:30 PM – Late: Dinner (You’re invited! See below!)
• Tuesday, 1:00 PM – 2:45 PM: Lunch in the Exhibit Hall
• Tuesday, 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM: STORAGE & CAPACITY MANAGEMENT track: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Virtualization – In One Hour!

Join Me For Dinner on Monday!

A bunch of storage folks have said they’re interested in getting together for a dinner on Monday night. Let’s do it!

• What: Dinner and conversation
• When: 7:30 PM on Monday the 17th until we get tired
• Where: Start at the San Francisco Hilton, then off for Sushi, Mexican, or Italian (help me decide!)
• Who: Anyone who wants to come along!
• How: Contact me through email, a comment on this page, or twitter!

See you in San Francisco!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2008. | Making Plans for Storage Decision San Francisco
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

I’ve just finished my day in Charlotte on my Storage Virtualization Seminar tour for TechTarget. We had another great crowd – everyone seemed interested even if some were shy about speaking up. I was especially pleased to see the optimism about the city’s post-Wachovia future.

Comments at the event focused on management, with my concerns about ownership and intra-departmental conflict rising from consolidation of server, I/O, and storage really getting attention.

Some highlights from the crowd:

• Satisfaction with IBM SAN Volume Controller (SVC) remains high. There were some large SVC users in the audience, and they have no complaints.
• Users are becoming aware of FCoE – the group here in Charlotte raised the first questions and comments I’ve heard yet from end-users.
• VMware is in use almost everywhere, but the folks were interested in Hyper-V, Xen, and Virtual Iron as well.
• Interest in deduplication and thin provisioning was also high, with many questioning the performance and space claims but overall optimism.
• Some talk turned towards retention policies, archiving, and how to control the use of storage systems.
• Everyone was clamoring for better metrics and clearer descriptions of system capability, particularly around storage utilization.

Congratulations to the winners of the TechTarget, Dell, and Agilisys giveaways!

If you were at the show and gave me your card, I’ll send the presentation PDF to you as soon as I get a better (faster) connection. If not, please drop me a line and I’d be happy to add you to the list.

My virtualization talk comes to Toronto next, and a shortened version will be presented at Storage Decisions San Francisco in November.

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2008. | Storage Virtualization Charlotte: Thoughts and Reactions
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal, Virtual Storage. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.

What is the best way to use email archiving systems for e-discovery? Earlier this year, I co-wrote a whitepaper on the topic (sponsored by LiveOffice), and on Wednesday I will present a companion webinar.

The gist is that email archiving can be an incredibly useful tool to manage legal risks and enable more effective discovery of message content. Electronic discovery is growing at an amazing clip, and most cases now include email messages – in fact, email is estimated to be 60% to 70% of all legal discovery in the United States today!

At the same time, companies are challenged with ineffective or un-enforced retention and litigation hold policies and rampant “underground archiving” of messages in offline PST files. And to make matters worse, the 2006 revisions to the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure drastically shortened the amount of time companies have to describe and produce electronic records! It’s simply impossible to begin recovering messages from backup tapes in response to legal requests – the only way forward is a proactive strategy based on email archiving.

If this piques your interest, grab a copy of that whitepaper, join me on Wednesday for the webinar, and check out some of my other email-related content. I’ll also be speaking on the topic at Storage Decisions in San Francisco, and would be happy to respond to your emailed questions any time!

© sfoskett for Stephen Foskett, Pack Rat, 2008. | Six Critical Steps For Managing Email E-Discovery
This post was categorized as Enterprise storage, Personal. Each of my categories has its own feed if you'd like to filter out or focus on posts like this.